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Title The economic impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa
Full text http://arno.unimaas.nl/show.cgi?fid=11056
Date 2008
Author(s) Azomahou, Theophile
Abstract In this paper, a simple general equilibrium model a la Solow is developed to capture the impact of AIDS on economic growth. To this end, a benchmark model due to Cuddington and Hancock (1994) is extended in various directions. In particular, the sharply declining life expectancy patterns are clearly rejected in the enlarged model through a generic Ben-Porath mechanism. AIDS-related health expenditures are incorporated as well. Using up-do-date optimal forecasting methods, the model applied to South Africa shows that while a relatively short term assessment might not reveal any dramatic AIDS growth effect, the medium/long run impact can be truly devastating. In particular, the heavy trends in mortality and life expectancy currently induced by AIDS are shown to be potentially at least twice more detrimental for per capita economic growth in the period 2020-2030 compared to 2000-2010.
Subject(s) Economics (Jel: A); economic development and growth (JEL: O); mathematical economics and econometrics (JEL: C); Epidemics; AIDS; Life Expectancy; Economic Growth; Sub-Saharan Africa
Publisher UNU-MERIT
Type of publication Research paper
Format application/pdf
Source UNU-MERIT working paper series: 2008-038, ISSN 1871-9872 ; vol.2008-038
Rights UNU-MERIT, 2008
Repository Maastricht - University of Maastricht
Added to C-A: 2008-12-22;03:54:26