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Title Climate Change, Agriculture, and Economic Development in Ethiopia
Full text http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/21218; http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/20450
Date 2018
Author(s) Yalew, Amsalu Woldie; Hirte, Georg; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Tscharaktschiew, Stefan
Abstract Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change-induced productivity and labor supply shocks in Ethiopian agriculture. We pursue a structural approach that blends biophysical and economic models. We consider different crop yield projections and add a regionalization to the country-wide CGE results. The study shows, in the worst case scenario, the effects on country-wide GDP may add up to âˆ'8%. The effects on regional value-added GDP are uneven and range from âˆ'10% to +2.5%. However, plausible cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor skills and marketing margins may offset about 20'30% of these general equilibrium effects. As such, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. This can be regarded as a co-benefit of structural change in the country. Nevertheless, given the role of the sector in the current economic structure and the potency of the projected biophysical impacts, adaptation in agriculture is imperative. Otherwise, climate change may make rural livelihoods unpredictable and strain the country's economic progress. - Peer Reviewed
Subject(s) climate change; agriculture; migration; structural change; CGE model; Ethiopia; 333.7 Natürliche Resourcen, Energie und Umwelt; 690 Hausbau, Bauhandwerk; ddc:333; ddc:690
Language eng
Publisher Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Type of publication article; doc-type:article; publishedVersion
Format application/pdf
Rights (CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 International; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Identifier urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/21218-9; 10.3390/su10103464; 2071-1050
Repository Berlin - Humboldt University of Berlin
Added to C-A: 2019-09-02;13:01:59