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Title An analysis of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in Namibia
Full text http://hdl.handle.net/11070/434
Date 2009
Author(s) Shipanga, Eden T.
Abstract a theses submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Economics - Abstract provided by author - In the area of international trade, studies have examined whether increases in exchange-rate volatility affect the trade flows of Less Developed Countries LDCs. The aim of this study is to investigate empirically the impact of exchange-rate volatility on the export flows of Namibia as one of the developing countries over the period 1998 - 2008. These are achieved by means of utilizing quarterly data of exchange rate and the trade flow of real exports of Namibia for the period 1998 - 2008 - During the stipulated time period, Namibia had experienced tremendous volatility in its exchange rate. Therefore, an assessment of the economic performance of the Namibian exports over the period 1998 - 2008 had been used to conclude that the price of the Namibian dollar (N$) is important to its future economic performances - The econometric analysis was employed to exploit the theory of cointegration, given the obvious non-stationarity of the time series. The study used Engle-Granger two step procedures. Three measures of exchange rate volatilities were used and produced mixed results. The mean adjusted relative change (V) as a measure of exchange rate volatility indicated positive and insignificant impact on real exports of Namibia. The moving average standard deviation (MASD) as a measure of exchange rate volatility produced a negative insignificant impact of exchange rate volatility on real exports of Namibia. The last measure of exchange rate volatility was the general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), which indicated a positive and significant impact of exchange rate volatility on Namibia's real exports. These results suggest that Namibia should start exploring possibility of macro-economic policy independence and be involved in the determination of exchange rate within the CMA framework. - In the area of international trade, studies have examined whether increases in exchange-rate volatility affect the trade flows of Less Developed Countries LDCs. The aim of this study is to investigate empirically the impact of exchange-rate volatility on the export flows of Namibia as one of the developing countries over the period 1998 - 2008. These are achieved by means of utilizing quarterly data of exchange rate and the trade flow of real exports of Namibia for the period 1998 - 2008 - During the stipulated time period, Namibia had experienced tremendous volatility in its exchange rate. Therefore, an assessment of the economic performance of the Namibian exports over the period 1998 - 2008 had been used to conclude that the price of the Namibian dollar (N$) is important to its future economic performances - The econometric analysis was employed to exploit the theory of cointegration, given the obvious non-stationarity of the time series. The study used Engle-Granger two step procedures. Three measures of exchange rate volatilities were used and produced mixed results. The mean adjusted relative change (V) as a measure of exchange rate volatility indicated positive and insignificant impact on real exports of Namibia. The moving average standard deviation (MASD) as a measure of exchange rate volatility produced a negative insignificant impact of exchange rate volatility on real exports of Namibia. The last measure of exchange rate volatility was the general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), which indicated a positive and significant impact of exchange rate volatility on Namibia's real exports. These results suggest that Namibia should start exploring possibility of macro-economic policy independence and be involved in the determination of exchange rate within the CMA framework. - Windhoek - Namibia - University of Namibia - Master of Science in Economics - Successfully Downloaded file :http://wwwisis.unam.na/theses/shipanga2009.pdf
Subject(s) Foreign exchange; Foreign exchange rates; Exports Namibia
Language eng
Type of publication Thesis
Format vi, 54 p
Source abstracts/shipanga2009abs.pdf; http://wwwisis.unam.na/theses/shipanga2009.pdf
Identifier F004-199299999999999
Repository Windhoek - University of Namibia
Added to C-A: 2020-11-05;08:33:46